HHAD dual-boundary v8 locked evaluation
M3 supplies ordered probabilities; draw and cover gates only change the audited decision.
| market | model | status | samples | log_loss | brier | rps | hard_hit | draw_precision | draw_recall | predicted_draws | actual_draws | letwin_false_rate | bootstrap_improvement_probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HHAD | M1_joint | BASELINE | 7 | 1.2940372351699365 | 0.8114583018788395 | 0.46976398407756237 | 0.14285714285714285 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 1.0 | |
| HHAD | M5-HHAD-DUAL-BOUNDARY | REJECTED | 7 | 1.3234323624592808 | 0.8405395043442567 | 0.5213870691392454 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.355 |