v8 strict World Cup model-bias audit
No non-World-Cup or post-kickoff feature is included.
| metric | numerator | denominator | rate | note | wilson_low | wilson_high | match_id | match_day | worldcup_stage | handicap | favorite_exposure | favorite_miss | actual_draw | draw_missed | total_signed_error | total_over_bias | total_under_bias | letwin_exposure | letwin_false |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| worldcup_writing_samples | 97 | 97 | 1.0 | strict WRITING only | |||||||||||||||
| favorite_high_confidence_failure | 19 | 69 | 0.2753623188405797 | 0.18394380762574333 | 0.39047520568533167 | ||||||||||||||
| spf_draw_recall | 2 | 25 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||
| spf_draw_precision | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| total_over_bias | 33 | 97 | 0.3402061855670103 | ||||||||||||||||
| total_under_bias | 38 | 97 | 0.3917525773195876 | ||||||||||||||||
| total_mean_signed_error | 97 | -0.2764783552863813 | |||||||||||||||||
| hhad_letwin_false_rate | 24 | 47 | 0.5106382978723404 | 0.37242217589372884 | 0.6472467566339649 | ||||||||||||||
| 2026-06-08-周四001-墨西哥-南非 | 2026-06-12 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3145806872522843 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周四002-韩国-捷克 | 2026-06-12 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.802196447233988 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周五003-加拿大-波黑 | 2026-06-13 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.17090052705155223 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周五004-美国-巴拉圭 | 2026-06-13 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.011738376109757 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周六005-卡塔尔-瑞士 | 2026-06-14 | GROUP_R1 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0546243740675427 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周六006-巴西-摩洛哥 | 2026-06-14 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.20247115436214846 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周六007-海地-苏格兰 | 2026-06-14 | GROUP_R1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7875776646249797 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周六008-澳大利亚-土耳其 | 2026-06-14 | GROUP_R1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.4351551832085838 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周日009-德国-库拉索 | 2026-06-15 | GROUP_R1 | -3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.639092446117756 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周日010-荷兰-日本 | 2026-06-15 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.5439367152257981 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周日011-科特迪瓦-厄瓜多尔 | 2026-06-15 | GROUP_R1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7782432466942264 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周日012-瑞典-突尼斯 | 2026-06-15 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.7643258408545464 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周一013-西班牙-佛得角 | 2026-06-16 | GROUP_R1 | -2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.491028963291139 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周一014-比利时-埃及 | 2026-06-16 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5315552505634407 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周一015-沙特-乌拉圭 | 2026-06-16 | GROUP_R1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.2885780989278368 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周一016-伊朗-新西兰 | 2026-06-16 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1.936924489614214 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周二017-法国-塞内加尔 | 2026-06-17 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.248721537584124 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周二018-伊拉克-挪威 | 2026-06-17 | GROUP_R1 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.8882316320461765 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周二019-阿根廷-阿尔及利 | 2026-06-17 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.5112388556068423 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周二020-奥地利-约旦 | 2026-06-17 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.3802516539701792 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周三021-葡萄牙-刚果金 | 2026-06-18 | GROUP_R1 | -2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.863911830492659 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周三022-英格兰-克罗地亚 | 2026-06-18 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.7708048578464735 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周三023-加纳-巴拿马 | 2026-06-18 | GROUP_R1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.26077961815581 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-08-周三024-乌兹别克-哥伦比亚 | 2026-06-18 | GROUP_R1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.4204505863634815 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-19-周四025-捷克-南非 | 2026-06-19 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.2533794809798433 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-19-周四026-瑞士-波黑 | 2026-06-19 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.5249495536030016 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-19-周四027-加拿大-卡塔尔 | 2026-06-19 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.1940377291010478 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-19-周四028-墨西哥-韩国 | 2026-06-19 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1724634480165719 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-20-周五029-美国-澳大利亚 | 2026-06-20 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4843839371799077 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-20-周五030-苏格兰-摩洛哥 | 2026-06-20 | GROUP_R2 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.244306657894605 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-20-周五031-巴西-海地 | 2026-06-20 | GROUP_R2 | -2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.624190645457904 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-20-周五032-土耳其-巴拉圭 | 2026-06-20 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2512974153187226 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-21-周六033-荷兰-瑞典 | 2026-06-21 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.2797625777672357 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-21-周六034-德国-科特迪瓦 | 2026-06-21 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06069615904785941 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-21-周六035-厄瓜多尔-库拉索 | 2026-06-21 | GROUP_R2 | -2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.113334986140649 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-21-周六036-突尼斯-日本 | 2026-06-21 | GROUP_R2 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.6332361027248394 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-22-周日037-西班牙-沙特 | 2026-06-22 | GROUP_R2 | -2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4211127357362945 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-22-周日038-比利时-伊朗 | 2026-06-22 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.8058782089362255 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-22-周日039-乌拉圭-佛得角 | 2026-06-22 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1.6949451471560075 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-22-周日040-新西兰-埃及 | 2026-06-22 | GROUP_R2 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.4892846041858387 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-23-周一041-阿根廷-奥地利 | 2026-06-23 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.531962414492317 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-23-周一042-法国-伊拉克 | 2026-06-23 | GROUP_R2 | -3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6372430559228497 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-23-周一043-挪威-塞内加尔 | 2026-06-23 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.4911909094704927 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-23-周一044-约旦-阿尔及利 | 2026-06-23 | GROUP_R2 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4790210338069105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-24-周二045-葡萄牙-乌兹别克 | 2026-06-24 | GROUP_R2 | -2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.7894978338288339 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-24-周二046-英格兰-加纳 | 2026-06-24 | GROUP_R2 | -2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.080304150302942 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-24-周二047-巴拿马-克罗地亚 | 2026-06-24 | GROUP_R2 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7868122534336903 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-24-周二048-哥伦比亚-刚果金 | 2026-06-24 | GROUP_R2 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2561836297890716 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-25-周三049-瑞士-加拿大 | 2026-06-25 | GROUP_R3 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.7829794757727062 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-25-周三050-波黑-卡塔尔 | 2026-06-25 | GROUP_R3 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.960713953800377 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-25-周三051-苏格兰-巴西 | 2026-06-25 | GROUP_R3 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.150747193676513 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-25-周三052-摩洛哥-海地 | 2026-06-25 | GROUP_R3 | -2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.904132209101861 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-25-周三053-南非-韩国 | 2026-06-25 | GROUP_R3 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.4364453924213154 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-25-周三054-捷克-墨西哥 | 2026-06-25 | GROUP_R3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.5068173196323351 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-26-周四055-厄瓜多尔-德国 | 2026-06-26 | GROUP_R3 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.15665718248149307 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-26-周四056-库拉索-科特迪瓦 | 2026-06-26 | GROUP_R3 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2594472871056257 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-26-周四057-突尼斯-荷兰 | 2026-06-26 | GROUP_R3 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.37186366242565105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-26-周四058-日本-瑞典 | 2026-06-26 | GROUP_R3 | -1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5271484324109621 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-26-周四059-巴拉圭-澳大利亚 | 2026-06-26 | GROUP_R3 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.7103528173513118 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-26-周四060-土耳其-美国 | 2026-06-26 | GROUP_R3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.967768664608844 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-27-周五061-挪威-法国 | 2026-06-27 | GROUP_R3 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.8160917104782044 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-27-周五062-塞内加尔-伊拉克 | 2026-06-27 | GROUP_R3 | -2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.94298235074127 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-27-周五063-佛得角-沙特 | 2026-06-27 | GROUP_R3 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.2598862719780115 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-27-周五064-乌拉圭-西班牙 | 2026-06-27 | GROUP_R3 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3180682442701435 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-27-周五065-埃及-伊朗 | 2026-06-27 | GROUP_R3 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -0.23633200867689963 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-27-周五066-新西兰-比利时 | 2026-06-27 | GROUP_R3 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.2517131668299672 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-28-周六067-克罗地亚-加纳 | 2026-06-28 | GROUP_R3 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.044365599710842 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-28-周六068-巴拿马-英格兰 | 2026-06-28 | GROUP_R3 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3491720818698565 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-28-周六069-哥伦比亚-葡萄牙 | 2026-06-28 | GROUP_R3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.750641537944151 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-28-周六070-刚果金-乌兹别克 | 2026-06-28 | GROUP_R3 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.7178092386284263 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-28-周六071-阿尔及利-奥地利 | 2026-06-28 | GROUP_R3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4.403150634697246 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-28-周六072-约旦-阿根廷 | 2026-06-28 | GROUP_R3 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.9281545375116886 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-29-周日073-南非-加拿大 | 2026-06-29 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2228919296999483 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-30-周一074-巴西-日本 | 2026-06-30 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.7236898242448015 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-06-30-周一075-德国-巴拉圭 | 2026-06-30 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8625649833477804 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-06-30-周一076-荷兰-摩洛哥 | 2026-06-30 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.19769138349013948 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-01-周二077-科特迪瓦-挪威 | 2026-07-01 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.480036710623013 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-07-01-周二078-法国-瑞典 | 2026-07-01 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2810997565632114 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-01-周二079-墨西哥-厄瓜多尔 | 2026-07-01 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2986490005722158 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-02-周三080-英格兰-刚果金 | 2026-07-02 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4051024259056133 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-07-02-周三081-比利时-塞内加尔 | 2026-07-02 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.5539087357498844 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-02-周三082-美国-波黑 | 2026-07-02 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8144384086512804 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-03-周四083-西班牙-奥地利 | 2026-07-03 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.18677750919555436 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-03-周四084-葡萄牙-克罗地亚 | 2026-07-03 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.39402263781259705 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-03-周四085-瑞士-阿尔及利 | 2026-07-03 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.20545824685650027 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-04-周五086-澳大利亚-埃及 | 2026-07-04 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -0.04989715609118073 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-04-周五087-阿根廷-佛得角 | 2026-07-04 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0518842793906087 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-07-04-周五088-哥伦比亚-加纳 | 2026-07-04 | KNOCKOUT_R32 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4143485678133185 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-07-05-周六089-加拿大-摩洛哥 | 2026-07-05 | KNOCKOUT_R16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.7990380740995544 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-07-05-周六090-巴拉圭-法国 | 2026-07-05 | KNOCKOUT_R16 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0620737148784687 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-06-周日091-巴西-挪威 | 2026-07-06 | KNOCKOUT_R16 | -1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.35431786835745704 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-06-周日092-墨西哥-英格兰 | 2026-07-06 | KNOCKOUT_R16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.8418132689725453 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-07-07-周一093-葡萄牙-西班牙 | 2026-07-07 | KNOCKOUT_R16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6952771052746614 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-07-07-周一094-美国-比利时 | 2026-07-07 | KNOCKOUT_R16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.2554656189503794 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-07-08-周二095-阿根廷-埃及 | 2026-07-08 | KNOCKOUT_R16 | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.454574594137148 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2026-07-10-周四097-法国-摩洛哥 | 2026-07-10 | KNOCKOUT_QF | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.44196430347624416 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2026-07-11-周五098-西班牙-比利时 | 2026-07-11 | KNOCKOUT_QF | -1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.30657424973778635 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |