Total-goal distribution v8 locked evaluation
Over- and under-bias are reported separately using signed total-goal error.
| market | model | status | samples | log_loss | brier | rps | hard_hit | mean_signed_error | mae | over_count | under_count | top2_hit | bootstrap_improvement_probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | M1_joint | BASELINE | 19 | 1.7278339574500023 | 0.7930664548766158 | 0.7606722076960558 | 0.3684210526315789 | 0.030865285937022098 | 1.0520028670527701 | 6 | 4 | 0.21052631578947367 | |
| TOTAL | M5-TOTAL-MARGIN-CALIBRATOR | REJECTED | 19 | 1.73246786611533 | 0.7938875300729641 | 0.766227687558333 | 0.3684210526315789 | 0.15532090333992118 | 1.06422966346879 | 8 | 4 | 0.2631578947368421 | 0.3405 |