Total-goal distribution v8 locked evaluation
Over- and under-bias are reported separately using signed total-goal error.
| market | model | status | samples | log_loss | brier | rps | hard_hit | mean_signed_error | mae | over_count | under_count | top2_hit | bootstrap_improvement_probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | M1_joint | BASELINE | 18 | 1.749327306067715 | 0.7998070288197164 | 0.771233524460714 | 0.2777777777777778 | -0.22502397116333503 | 1.0717823458108433 | 5 | 5 | 0.2222222222222222 | |
| TOTAL | M5-TOTAL-MARGIN-CALIBRATOR | REJECTED | 18 | 1.7445230735210002 | 0.7974339891574223 | 0.7696180428272184 | 0.3888888888888889 | 0.16809098357383795 | 1.0632659683870438 | 7 | 4 | 0.3888888888888889 | 0.538 |