World Cup 2026 closing model report
Small-sample closing audit. No stability claim is made from four matches.
| model | status | settled_matches | hard_hits | hard_hit_rate | average_brier | average_logloss | average_rps | scope_note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v7 HHAD | BASELINE | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.29251919 | 0.578365914 | 0.119503256 | four-match forward audit; no in-tournament refit |
| M3 controlled HHAD | CONTROLLED_OVERRIDE | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.18703614200000002 | 0.41554637000000005 | 0.061890683999999994 | four-match forward audit; no in-tournament refit |
| KO_DRAW_ALERT | CONFIDENCE_ONLY | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | does not change SPF direction and never counts as a hard prediction hit |