World Cup 2026 closing model report
Small-sample closing audit. No stability claim is made from four matches.
| model | status | settled_matches | hard_hits | hard_hit_rate | average_brier | average_logloss | average_rps | scope_note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v7 HHAD | BASELINE | 0 | 0 | four-match forward audit; no in-tournament refit | ||||
| M3 controlled HHAD | CONTROLLED_OVERRIDE | 0 | 0 | four-match forward audit; no in-tournament refit | ||||
| KO_DRAW_ALERT | CONFIDENCE_ONLY | 0 | 0 | does not change SPF direction and never counts as a hard prediction hit |