World Cup 2026 final model report
This report fills the remaining-match outcomes as results arrive; frozen predictions are never rewritten.
| market | model_status | candidate | training_samples | oof_samples | bootstrap_improvement_probability | official_review_scope | final_prematch_scope | settled_live_matches | first_public_hard_hit | final_prematch_hard_hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPF | REJECTED | M2_residual | 78 | 31 | 0.4095 | FIRST_PUBLIC | robustness_audit_only | 6 | 0.16666666666666666 | 0.16666666666666666 |
| HHAD | SHADOW | M3_ordinal | 97 | 37 | 0.893 | FIRST_PUBLIC | robustness_audit_only | 6 | 0.8333333333333334 | 0.8333333333333334 |