World Cup expanding-window OOF predictions

Each match-day block is predicted only from earlier match days.
match_idmatch_daymarketactualm0_probabilitym1_probabilitycandidate_probabilitycandidate_hit
2026-06-27-周五061-挪威-法国2026-06-27SPF2[0.19042112363881658, 0.2270405704924352, 0.5825383058687482][0.186929075, 0.2228769739, 0.5901939511][0.28002078155564764, 0.19876610942086612, 0.5212131090234863]1
2026-06-27-周五063-佛得角-沙特2026-06-27SPF1[0.3881819766428447, 0.27401080704200803, 0.33780721631514726][0.3974818102, 0.2698457533, 0.3326724365][0.5039245565446113, 0.3498923839316527, 0.14618305952373603]0
2026-06-27-周五064-乌拉圭-西班牙2026-06-27SPF2[0.14703635277611857, 0.24250927224992705, 0.6104543749739544][0.1437748549, 0.2371300347, 0.6190951104][0.2576041981838702, 0.23367115860142773, 0.508724643214702]1
2026-06-27-周五065-埃及-伊朗2026-06-27SPF1[0.411728825374695, 0.35408678982223774, 0.23418438480306733][0.4152554499, 0.3519640763, 0.2327804738][0.3970060351929288, 0.49293317014095717, 0.11006079466611386]1
2026-06-28-周六067-克罗地亚-加纳2026-06-28SPF0[0.5240454885743824, 0.295212291896902, 0.18074221952871553][0.534325293, 0.2888362106, 0.1768384964][0.6145257655584746, 0.33240091037517183, 0.05307332406635358]1
2026-06-28-周六069-哥伦比亚-葡萄牙2026-06-28SPF1[0.2459421858092441, 0.2392950997062915, 0.5147627144844644][0.2401014926, 0.2336122629, 0.5262862445][0.45553104991514626, 0.10986285616767451, 0.43460609391717914]0
2026-06-28-周六070-刚果金-乌兹别克2026-06-28SPF0[0.6109217492203931, 0.2187250707085358, 0.17035318007107111][0.6160302981, 0.2158532378, 0.1681164641][0.6299591400592917, 0.29800382850038865, 0.07203703144031959]1
2026-06-28-周六071-阿尔及利-奥地利2026-06-28SPF1[0.22710929007442096, 0.4565599130362071, 0.31633079688937205][0.2241781845, 0.4506674839, 0.3251543316][0.4300927569068337, 0.28594323247575953, 0.2839640106174067]0
2026-06-29-周日073-南非-加拿大2026-06-29SPF2[0.15965819653699123, 0.24960647627614121, 0.5907353271868675][0.1553682084, 0.2428995932, 0.6017321984][0.11711703707798175, 0.5941177435372765, 0.28876521938474176]0
2026-06-30-周一074-巴西-日本2026-06-30SPF0[0.5901487847703539, 0.2379632196654653, 0.17188799556418077][0.5977163232, 0.2335694403, 0.1687142365][0.7139478527562224, 0.20386543239118185, 0.08218671485259574]1
2026-06-30-周一075-德国-巴拉圭2026-06-30SPF1[0.7256546840611144, 0.17705974291091195, 0.09728557302797358][0.7374095368, 0.1694732776, 0.0931171855][0.9092397555178466, 0.06312814134847637, 0.02763210313367691]0
2026-06-30-周一076-荷兰-摩洛哥2026-06-30SPF1[0.442547557661487, 0.3031147655215664, 0.2543376768169465][0.4525085585, 0.2976984713, 0.2497929702][0.5268727568100736, 0.3291501015612813, 0.143977141628645]0
2026-07-01-周二077-科特迪瓦-挪威2026-07-01SPF2[0.2350001387132955, 0.26446284267138026, 0.5005370186153243][0.2298986005, 0.2587217084, 0.5113796911][0.16272410830843834, 0.30125644691740333, 0.5360194447741583]1
2026-07-01-周二078-法国-瑞典2026-07-01SPF0[0.7630813953488373, 0.15261627906976746, 0.08430232558139535][0.7731179761, 0.1461509968, 0.0807310271][0.7036515155636331, 0.2736611093424367, 0.022687375093930102]1
2026-07-01-周二079-墨西哥-厄瓜多尔2026-07-01SPF0[0.4382268666779033, 0.3404685656497556, 0.22130456767234116][0.44854827, 0.3342131697, 0.2172385604][0.28184563452088257, 0.6616086934724826, 0.0565456720066348]0
2026-07-02-周三080-英格兰-刚果金2026-07-02SPF0[0.763578858428198, 0.16556102350966534, 0.07086011806213677][0.7744307338, 0.157961671, 0.0676075952][0.789829855164663, 0.18792605372414195, 0.022244091111195123]1
2026-07-02-周三081-比利时-塞内加尔2026-07-02SPF1[0.4448273314705614, 0.30006996258522617, 0.25510270594421247][0.4550578393, 0.2945403889, 0.2504017718][0.42070732342443606, 0.474973586271947, 0.10431909030361691]1
2026-07-02-周三082-美国-波黑2026-07-02SPF0[0.7255526455617005, 0.1802798834185895, 0.09416747101971006][0.7330959704, 0.1753247993, 0.0915792303][0.6844709785591782, 0.26097610888635353, 0.05455291255446825]1
2026-07-03-周四083-西班牙-奥地利2026-07-03SPF0[0.7505203256316358, 0.16709697815949628, 0.08238269620886793][0.7574583234, 0.1624500326, 0.080091644][0.7566372949752406, 0.20768216604038653, 0.03568053898437304]1
2026-07-03-周四084-葡萄牙-克罗地亚2026-07-03SPF0[0.5638065989550461, 0.26661938565042853, 0.1695740153945254][0.5752379128, 0.2596320954, 0.1651299918][0.6703660360399702, 0.26574684628819567, 0.06388711767183403]1
2026-07-03-周四085-瑞士-阿尔及利2026-07-03SPF0[0.5089269280323946, 0.2802319160684704, 0.2108411558991349][0.5193511797, 0.2742832941, 0.2063655261][0.5889171806679361, 0.32192379992395803, 0.08915901940810589]1
2026-07-04-周五086-澳大利亚-埃及2026-07-04SPF1[0.2767043383157127, 0.3208166241341597, 0.40247903755012754][0.2718846181, 0.3152285426, 0.4128868393][0.22030073215440377, 0.31515405570708016, 0.46454521213851613]0
2026-07-04-周五088-哥伦比亚-加纳2026-07-04SPF0[0.7026509102523156, 0.19674225487064836, 0.1006068348770361][0.7132972251, 0.1896980766, 0.0970046983][0.8678069324717747, 0.10899465857614907, 0.023198408952076397]1
2026-07-05-周六089-加拿大-摩洛哥2026-07-05SPF2[0.18289712290578397, 0.26035943378352777, 0.5567434433106883][0.1803125856, 0.2566802688, 0.5630071456][0.14433053081981562, 0.36083071001366673, 0.49483875916651754]1
2026-07-06-周日091-巴西-挪威2026-07-06SPF2[0.5711078091464421, 0.24054812613505033, 0.1883440647185075][0.5789454478, 0.2361523144, 0.1849022377][0.8577452606043358, 0.13362203526513136, 0.008632704130532834]0
2026-07-06-周日092-墨西哥-英格兰2026-07-06SPF2[0.27668577421746443, 0.30957848863492526, 0.41373573714761036][0.2718934504, 0.3042164479, 0.4238901017][0.23984765960295254, 0.32911570090232123, 0.43103663949472637]1
2026-07-07-周一093-葡萄牙-西班牙2026-07-07SPF2[0.2312433934700761, 0.2683824839364823, 0.5003741225934416][0.2270793151, 0.2635496291, 0.5093710557][0.1322609378734083, 0.22939767991512014, 0.6383413822114716]1
2026-07-07-周一094-美国-比利时2026-07-07SPF2[0.3627485240293539, 0.27150503025509926, 0.36574644571554693][0.3585046279, 0.2683286169, 0.3731667551][0.2183310568596599, 0.3281044842916832, 0.45356445884865687]1
2026-07-08-周二095-阿根廷-埃及2026-07-08SPF0[0.725953357721845, 0.18764048652979892, 0.08640615574835618][0.7309216403, 0.1842386899, 0.0848396699][0.6373074385878187, 0.2586508534905933, 0.10404170792158811]1
2026-07-10-周四097-法国-摩洛哥2026-07-10SPF0[0.6236940583272368, 0.2361721500865803, 0.14013379158618292][0.6307387785, 0.2317508361, 0.1375103854][0.6609670878090844, 0.22566083019890215, 0.1133720819920134]1
2026-07-11-周五098-西班牙-比利时2026-07-11SPF0[0.6105436102578755, 0.2299449960711479, 0.1595113936709765][0.6170393434, 0.2261097494, 0.1568509073][0.6667199063630583, 0.203077985698136, 0.13020210793880563]1
2026-06-27-周五061-挪威-法国2026-06-27HHAD0[0.33684314243614494, 0.25678187379914813, 0.40637498376470693][0.3348962389, 0.2552977123, 0.4098060489][0.15502455324105452, 0.2848872416515462, 0.5600882051073992]0
2026-06-27-周五062-塞内加尔-伊拉克2026-06-27HHAD2[0.42777309959427395, 0.22360866569700683, 0.3486182347087193][0.4277730997, 0.2236086657, 0.3486182345][0.6144615688279621, 0.2412359126823399, 0.144302518489698]0
2026-06-27-周五063-佛得角-沙特2026-06-27HHAD0[0.5983085412667947, 0.23302543186180422, 0.16866602687140117][0.6025181898, 0.2305833707, 0.1668984396][0.5066674275452168, 0.3282929037289323, 0.16503966872585096]1
2026-06-27-周五064-乌拉圭-西班牙2026-06-27HHAD1[0.3661345315781155, 0.25682480186059115, 0.37704066656129337][0.3638633953, 0.2552317151, 0.3809048896][0.3237948078888758, 0.347139950624892, 0.3290652414862322]1
2026-06-27-周五065-埃及-伊朗2026-06-27HHAD0[0.5831547093683016, 0.23956625898373465, 0.1772790316479637][0.5847445501, 0.2386525575, 0.1766028924][0.835045280295692, 0.1264906754728301, 0.03846404423147787]1
2026-06-27-周五066-新西兰-比利时2026-06-27HHAD0[0.43198218453566306, 0.23001648786963874, 0.33800132759469814][0.4319821846, 0.2300164878, 0.3380013277][0.21957144313247504, 0.29933328183271635, 0.48109527503480864]0
2026-06-28-周六067-克罗地亚-加纳2026-06-28HHAD1[0.4610577655845146, 0.29507696997408933, 0.24386526444139614][0.465674707, 0.2925491423, 0.2417761507][0.2863151863716393, 0.4231175685219228, 0.29056724510643794]1
2026-06-28-周六068-巴拿马-英格兰2026-06-28HHAD1[0.47343151753337515, 0.21593096043595408, 0.31063752203067074][0.4734315174, 0.2159309605, 0.3106375221][0.45869635013844706, 0.3196771211735569, 0.22162652868799604]0
2026-06-28-周六069-哥伦比亚-葡萄牙2026-06-28HHAD2[0.2820172249286497, 0.24944622148618598, 0.4685365535851642][0.2792699803, 0.2470162642, 0.4737137555][0.20070274659224913, 0.34835884489997765, 0.4509384085077732]1
2026-06-28-周六070-刚果金-乌兹别克2026-06-28HHAD2[0.38167910723523757, 0.28290591973985657, 0.33541497302490575][0.3839697019, 0.2818578834, 0.3341724146][0.27660822816879777, 0.39669492262016975, 0.3266968492110325]0
2026-06-28-周六071-阿尔及利-奥地利2026-06-28HHAD2[0.12560291367260557, 0.2035633428487056, 0.6708337434786887][0.1240720476, 0.201082284, 0.6748456684][0.08859636459632719, 0.2693809181220356, 0.6420227172816373]1
2026-06-28-周六072-约旦-阿根廷2026-06-28HHAD1[0.4449797160243407, 0.22705375253549698, 0.32796653144016225][0.4449797158, 0.2270537526, 0.3279665316][0.4308995063608329, 0.33377497836662634, 0.23532551527254075]0
2026-06-29-周日073-南非-加拿大2026-06-29HHAD1[0.311634349030471, 0.2950138504155125, 0.39335180055401664][0.3091090061, 0.2926231923, 0.3982678016][0.1679468923829657, 0.37056702059759683, 0.4614860870194375]0
2026-06-30-周一074-巴西-日本2026-06-30HHAD1[0.3988931810087395, 0.276732144324813, 0.3243746746664475][0.4022836768, 0.2751712585, 0.3225450648][0.5695819156854104, 0.2985042057071978, 0.1319138786073918]0
2026-06-30-周一075-德国-巴拉圭2026-06-30HHAD0[0.25740783223831426, 0.21863776367896323, 0.5239544040827225][0.2625904632, 0.2171118672, 0.5202976696][0.1601621566443945, 0.2817882544572625, 0.558049588898343]0
2026-06-30-周一076-荷兰-摩洛哥2026-06-30HHAD0[0.5429960606168152, 0.2603186996486496, 0.19668523973453525][0.5474914415, 0.2577580396, 0.1947505189][0.669858864033318, 0.24715555533484457, 0.08298558063183747]1
2026-07-01-周二077-科特迪瓦-挪威2026-07-01HHAD1[0.27238507620582336, 0.24387093599694928, 0.4837439877972272][0.2698122497, 0.2415674414, 0.4886203089][0.27463595057249707, 0.37410173105600614, 0.3512623183714968]1
2026-07-01-周二078-法国-瑞典2026-07-01HHAD2[0.22246471188707803, 0.2241543172938153, 0.5533809708191066][0.2268820239, 0.2228808581, 0.550237118][0.21589732691768337, 0.35472803417683907, 0.42937463890547756]1
2026-07-01-周二079-墨西哥-厄瓜多尔2026-07-01HHAD2[0.5467920521765509, 0.281207341119369, 0.1720006067040801][0.55145173, 0.2783160952, 0.1702321748][0.6252633526515416, 0.29403610360617005, 0.0807005437422883]0
2026-07-02-周三080-英格兰-刚果金2026-07-02HHAD1[0.22080255174057303, 0.2425803376656706, 0.5366171105937563][0.2255692662, 0.2410963606, 0.5333343731][0.14278921991316296, 0.32121488134643694, 0.5359958987404001]0
2026-07-02-周三081-比利时-塞内加尔2026-07-02HHAD0[0.5403254972875227, 0.24614828209764922, 0.2135262206148282][0.5449421607, 0.2436761332, 0.2113817061][0.5037466358661713, 0.34060243980664406, 0.15565092432718464]1
2026-07-02-周三082-美国-波黑2026-07-02HHAD2[0.26355287138619876, 0.23614337276203412, 0.5003037558517672][0.2669040296, 0.2350688167, 0.4980271537][0.19695026870724752, 0.34165268734491105, 0.4613970439478414]1
2026-07-03-周四083-西班牙-奥地利2026-07-03HHAD2[0.23946269671836917, 0.23626986076212428, 0.5242674425195065][0.2425416766, 0.2353133395, 0.5221449839][0.20486166066453673, 0.35421626437772324, 0.44092207495774005]1
2026-07-03-周四084-葡萄牙-克罗地亚2026-07-03HHAD1[0.41964337965526405, 0.30015170544834135, 0.28020491489639465][0.4247620872, 0.2975043869, 0.2777335259][0.282411683042427, 0.4223908671307593, 0.29519744982681373]1
2026-07-03-周四085-瑞士-阿尔及利2026-07-03HHAD2[0.4759628550800408, 0.2801553514078721, 0.24388179351208705][0.4806488203, 0.2776501888, 0.2417009909][0.3808204113578339, 0.40108242987915094, 0.21809715876301516]0
2026-07-04-周五086-澳大利亚-埃及2026-07-04HHAD2[0.1595051107351443, 0.25809135993587484, 0.5824035293289809][0.1577062204, 0.2551806189, 0.5871131607][0.13378788940515426, 0.36437073264406006, 0.5018413779507858]1
2026-07-04-周五087-阿根廷-佛得角2026-07-04HHAD0[0.30736113122588965, 0.25657972693639486, 0.43605914183771544][0.3073611314, 0.2565797268, 0.4360591418][0.3062440685408855, 0.38011685951813046, 0.31363907194098406]0
2026-07-04-周五088-哥伦比亚-加纳2026-07-04HHAD1[0.28198702088640304, 0.3173617367682099, 0.4006512423453871][0.2867027749, 0.3152773734, 0.3980198517][0.1369085290312055, 0.36994428818059355, 0.4931471827882009]0
2026-07-05-周六089-加拿大-摩洛哥2026-07-05HHAD0[0.2725318281149086, 0.29328756336869305, 0.43418060851639845][0.2711772855, 0.2918298601, 0.4369928544][0.24199519714562406, 0.4114857047957509, 0.346519098058625]0
2026-07-05-周六090-巴拉圭-法国2026-07-05HHAD2[0.357134707624624, 0.26597419666938965, 0.3768910957059862][0.3571347076, 0.2659741966, 0.3768910958][0.3152203782094825, 0.384145526296744, 0.3006340954937735]0
2026-07-06-周日091-巴西-挪威2026-07-06HHAD0[0.41754030800375963, 0.29506181765599016, 0.28739787434025016][0.4210545522, 0.2932815755, 0.2856638724][0.3551079291778455, 0.4070785313407628, 0.23781353948139172]0
2026-07-06-周日092-墨西哥-英格兰2026-07-06HHAD1[0.1640470736908617, 0.2644340889345233, 0.571518837374615][0.1622893533, 0.2616007483, 0.5761098983][0.11122515387369118, 0.33461610539399117, 0.5541587407323177]0
2026-07-07-周一093-葡萄牙-西班牙2026-07-07HHAD1[0.2589412745915714, 0.254476769857234, 0.4865819555511946][0.2569001848, 0.2524708709, 0.4906289443][0.2239041086628318, 0.3502687985367552, 0.425827092800413]0
2026-07-07-周一094-美国-比利时2026-07-07HHAD0[0.17531356098655965, 0.20121215522321048, 0.6234742837902297][0.1737496003, 0.1994171548, 0.6268332449][0.16289814910736927, 0.29819990816651454, 0.5389019427261161]0
2026-07-08-周二095-阿根廷-埃及2026-07-08HHAD1[0.26686129201287523, 0.2568056491254335, 0.4763330588616912][0.2690783597, 0.2560290492, 0.4748925911][0.5050761614165306, 0.32201351423959923, 0.17291032434387021]0
2026-07-10-周四097-法国-摩洛哥2026-07-10HHAD2[0.3661089812781479, 0.2904864703911862, 0.3434045483306658][0.3692612215, 0.2890419268, 0.3416968517][0.4954472307705839, 0.342635353166948, 0.16191741606246812]0
2026-07-11-周五098-西班牙-比利时2026-07-11HHAD1[0.3800510049071508, 0.27672463794801916, 0.34322435714482996][0.3829606566, 0.275425866, 0.3416134774][0.5891154768754537, 0.2879544868513306, 0.12293003627321564]0