World Cup final-four controlled policy ledger
M3 is a user-authorized CONTROLLED_OVERRIDE, not a 90%-gate champion. Existing FIRST_PUBLIC rows remain immutable.
| match_id | kickoff_time | home_team | away_team | event_type | switch_time | model_before | model_after | v7_hhad_probability | m3_hhad_probability | v7_main | v7_backup | m3_main | m3_backup | draw_alert | draw_alert_evidence | reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15-周二101-法国-西班牙 | 2026-07-15 03:00 | 法国 | 西班牙 | MODEL_POLICY_SWITCH | 2026-07-12 13:15:28 | v7-market-joint-baseline | worldcup-2026-final-four-m3-ordinal | {"hhad_draw":0.2310336216,"hhad_loss":0.5897974472,"hhad_win":0.1791689312} | {"hhad_draw":0.2740954622,"hhad_loss":0.6283183347,"hhad_win":0.097586203} | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | HIGH | 完整比分网格平局概率不低于28% | 大小球或比分网格支持低总进球 | 亚盘属于浅让区间 | PowerRank分差不超过50 | M3 bootstrap 89.3%; user-authorized final-four controlled override |
| 2026-07-16-周三102-英格兰-阿根廷 | 2026-07-16 03:00 | 英格兰 | 阿根廷 | MODEL_POLICY_ACTIVE_AT_FIRST_PUBLIC | 2026-07-13 11:17:27 | v7-market-joint-baseline | worldcup-2026-final-four-m3-ordinal | {"hhad_draw":0.2305258439,"hhad_loss":0.6234744547,"hhad_win":0.1459997014} | {"hhad_draw":0.2459890022,"hhad_loss":0.682956113,"hhad_win":0.0710548849} | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | HIGH | 市场平局概率距最高方向不超过8个百分点 | 完整比分网格平局概率不低于28% | 比分Top3包含至少两个平局路径 | 大小球或比分网格支持低总进球 | 亚盘属于浅让区间 | M3 bootstrap 89.3%; user-authorized final-four controlled override |
| 2026-07-16-周三102-英格兰-阿根廷 | 2026-07-16 03:00 | 英格兰 | 阿根廷 | MODEL_POLICY_SWITCH | 2026-07-13 11:50:09 | v7-market-joint-baseline | worldcup-2026-final-four-m3-ordinal | {"hhad_draw":0.2305258439,"hhad_loss":0.6234744547,"hhad_win":0.1459997014} | {"hhad_draw":0.2565528728,"hhad_loss":0.6676408781,"hhad_win":0.0758062491} | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | HIGH | 市场平局概率距最高方向不超过8个百分点 | 完整比分网格平局概率不低于28% | 比分Top3包含至少两个平局路径 | 大小球或比分网格支持低总进球 | 亚盘属于浅让区间 | M3 bootstrap 89.3%; user-authorized final-four controlled override |
| 2026-07-19-周六103-法国-英格兰 | 2026-07-19 05:00 | 法国 | 英格兰 | MODEL_POLICY_ACTIVE_AT_FIRST_PUBLIC | 2026-07-16 11:20:58 | v7-market-joint-baseline | worldcup-2026-final-four-m3-ordinal | {"hhad_draw":0.232274152,"hhad_loss":0.4919002922,"hhad_win":0.2758255558} | {"hhad_draw":0.2363323095,"hhad_loss":0.6665250035,"hhad_win":0.097142687} | hhad_loss | hhad_win | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | LOW | 亚盘属于浅让区间 | M3 bootstrap 89.3%; user-authorized final-four controlled override |
| 2026-07-20-周日104-西班牙-阿根廷 | 2026-07-20 03:00 | 西班牙 | 阿根廷 | MODEL_POLICY_ACTIVE_AT_FIRST_PUBLIC | 2026-07-16 11:20:58 | v7-market-joint-baseline | worldcup-2026-final-four-m3-ordinal | {"hhad_draw":0.2549196861,"hhad_loss":0.5538905492,"hhad_win":0.1911897647} | {"hhad_draw":0.2638290573,"hhad_loss":0.6528774337,"hhad_win":0.083293509} | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | HIGH | 完整比分网格平局概率不低于28% | 比分Top3包含至少两个平局路径 | 大小球或比分网格支持低总进球 | 亚盘属于浅让区间 | PowerRank分差不超过50 | M3 bootstrap 89.3%; user-authorized final-four controlled override |
| 2026-07-19-周六103-法国-英格兰 | 2026-07-19 05:00 | 法国 | 英格兰 | MODEL_POLICY_SWITCH | 2026-07-16 11:45:05 | v7-market-joint-baseline | worldcup-2026-final-four-m3-ordinal | {"hhad_draw":0.232274152,"hhad_loss":0.4919002922,"hhad_win":0.2758255558} | {"hhad_draw":0.2428221969,"hhad_loss":0.655723328,"hhad_win":0.1014544751} | hhad_loss | hhad_win | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | LOW | 亚盘属于浅让区间 | M3 bootstrap 89.3%; user-authorized final-four controlled override |
| 2026-07-20-周日104-西班牙-阿根廷 | 2026-07-20 03:00 | 西班牙 | 阿根廷 | MODEL_POLICY_SWITCH | 2026-07-16 11:45:05 | v7-market-joint-baseline | worldcup-2026-final-four-m3-ordinal | {"hhad_draw":0.2549196861,"hhad_loss":0.5538905492,"hhad_win":0.1911897647} | {"hhad_draw":0.2710133493,"hhad_loss":0.6419714422,"hhad_win":0.0870152084} | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | HIGH | 完整比分网格平局概率不低于28% | 比分Top3包含至少两个平局路径 | 大小球或比分网格支持低总进球 | 亚盘属于浅让区间 | PowerRank分差不超过50 | M3 bootstrap 89.3%; user-authorized final-four controlled override |