World Cup final-four controlled policy ledger
M3 is a user-authorized CONTROLLED_OVERRIDE, not a 90%-gate champion. Existing FIRST_PUBLIC rows remain immutable.
| match_id | kickoff_time | home_team | away_team | event_type | switch_time | model_before | model_after | v7_hhad_probability | m3_hhad_probability | v7_main | v7_backup | m3_main | m3_backup | draw_alert | draw_alert_evidence | reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15-周二101-法国-西班牙 | 2026-07-15 03:00 | 法国 | 西班牙 | MODEL_POLICY_SWITCH | 2026-07-12 13:15:28 | v7-market-joint-baseline | worldcup-2026-final-four-m3-ordinal | {"hhad_draw":0.2310336216,"hhad_loss":0.5897974472,"hhad_win":0.1791689312} | {"hhad_draw":0.2740954622,"hhad_loss":0.6283183347,"hhad_win":0.097586203} | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | hhad_loss | hhad_draw | HIGH | 完整比分网格平局概率不低于28% | 大小球或比分网格支持低总进球 | 亚盘属于浅让区间 | PowerRank分差不超过50 | M3 bootstrap 89.3%; user-authorized final-four controlled override |